Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.63 – 280.4

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.2 ±9.8

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 117.59Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 85.73Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 139.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.1 ±9.3

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 93.93Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 73.83Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 112.64Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 3176, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 761, 3176, 4926

Auto

66.8 20%

Teleop

202.1 60%

Endgame

66.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6498, 1741, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6498, 1741, 8116

Auto

32.6 12%

Teleop

136.1 50%

Endgame

103.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score342.6pts

Blue projected score280.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.2
Score range: 232–391
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.2Season APEX361.1

66.8Auto32.6

202.1Teleop136.1

66.8Endgame103.4

122Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	37
teleop	169	78
endgame	131	57
foul	0	0
total	347	172

Result

Final score

347 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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