Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.21 – 245.76

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.6 ±9.8

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 33.09Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 181.14Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 100.98Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±9.3

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 109.68Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 40.83Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 95.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 4272, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10434, 4272, 45

Auto

43.7 14%

Teleop

159.4 50%

Endgame

114.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 829, 8430, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 829, 8430, 868

Auto

46.1 19%

Teleop

151.2 62%

Endgame

47.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score315.2pts

Blue projected score245.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.4
Score range: 198–363
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.6Season APEX409

43.7Auto46.1

159.4Teleop151.2

114Endgame47.5

120Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	51
teleop	156	115
endgame	66	82
foul	0	0
total	294	248

Result

Final score

294 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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