Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.1 – 235.08

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.8 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 73.79Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 54.99Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 145.32Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394 ±9.8

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 114.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 32.13Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 88.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 4580, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3494, 4580, 10021

Auto

48.7 19%

Teleop

128.0 49%

Endgame

83.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6721, 7657, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6721, 7657, 5010

Auto

56.3 24%

Teleop

131.2 57%

Endgame

43.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score274.1pts

Blue projected score235.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39
Score range: 187–322
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 266.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.8Season APEX394

48.7Auto56.3

128Teleop131.2

83.6Endgame43.9

90Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	39
teleop	167	213
endgame	68	48
foul	0	0
total	327	300

Result

Final score

327 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.