Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.21 – 357.53

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±9.8

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 35.66Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 177.72Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 20.83Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.8 ±9.3

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 70.6Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 173.47Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 113.46Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1747, 1720, 6956

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1747, 1720, 6956

Auto

53.9 24%

Teleop

98.3 43%

Endgame

76.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5484, 3940, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5484, 3940, 234

Auto

42.3 12%

Teleop

191.7 55%

Endgame

115.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.2pts

Blue projected score357.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.3
Score range: 186–406
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 267.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.5Season APEX332.8

53.9Auto42.3

98.3Teleop191.7

76.1Endgame115.6

131Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	79
teleop	140	108
endgame	82	45
foul	0	0
total	265	232

Result

Final score

265 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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