Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.61 – 301.1

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.1 ±9.3

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 68.03Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 85.91Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 72.67Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±9.3

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -1.31Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 195.74Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 106.67Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5402, 868, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5402, 868, 1741

Auto

34.4 15%

Teleop

144.8 62%

Endgame

53.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 4272, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 135, 4272, 6498

Auto

57.3 19%

Teleop

150.4 51%

Endgame

88.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score301.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.5
Score range: 179–349
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.1Season APEX417.1

34.4Auto57.3

144.8Teleop150.4

53.3Endgame88.1

100Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	57
teleop	142	95
endgame	84	62
foul	5	20
total	269	234

Result

Final score

269 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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