Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.14 – 194.29

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.8 ±9.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 72.65Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 39.42Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 159.07Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.3 ±9.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 86.78Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 43.96Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 63.55Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 447, 9491, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 447, 9491, 1024

Auto

54.7 20%

Teleop

144.6 53%

Endgame

71.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3176, 8430, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3176, 8430, 7617

Auto

27.8 15%

Teleop

125.5 69%

Endgame

28.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.1pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.9
Score range: 146–319
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 268.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.8Season APEX276.3

54.7Auto27.8

144.6Teleop125.5

71.7Endgame28.1

158Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	18
teleop	116	137
endgame	58	53
foul	15	0
total	235	208

Result

Final score

235 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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