Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.32 – 281.94

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 324

Prediction missed · off by 143.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.4 ±9.4

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 78.65Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX -11.96Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 42.63Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±10.4

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 97.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 135.43Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 49.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 2867, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7457, 2867, 1646

Auto

49.5 44%

Teleop

40.6 36%

Endgame

22.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 45, 4926, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 45, 4926, 9119

Auto

66.2 23%

Teleop

157.9 56%

Endgame

58.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score109.3pts

Blue projected score281.9pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.6
Score range: 61–330
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 266.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.4Season APEX297.9

49.5Auto66.2

40.6Teleop157.9

22.7Endgame58.5

140Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	40
teleop	161	205
endgame	101	79
foul	0	0
total	354	324

Result

Final score

354 – 324

Prediction missed · off by 143.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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