Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.84 – 408.82

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 168.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.7 ±9.3

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 70.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 82.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 81.66Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.7 ±9.3

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 213.8Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 57.98Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 137.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 234, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5010, 234, 4982

Auto

18.1 8%

Teleop

166.6 71%

Endgame

51.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 7657, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1720, 7657, 761

Auto

67.8 17%

Teleop

244.9 61%

Endgame

88.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.8pts

Blue projected score408.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -174
Score range: 187–457
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 265.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.7Season APEX476.7

18.1Auto67.8

166.6Teleop244.9

51.5Endgame88

128Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	97
teleop	185	111
endgame	135	12
foul	0	0
total	383	220

Result

Final score

383 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 168.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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