Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.87 – 241.16

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.8 ±9.3

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 105.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 65.16Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 13.22Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.6 ±9.8

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 19.56Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 104.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 117.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 5402, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1501, 5402, 135

Auto

46.2 25%

Teleop

114.5 61%

Endgame

27.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6956, 3494, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6956, 3494, 461

Auto

50.1 22%

Teleop

110.6 49%

Endgame

63.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score183.9pts

Blue projected score241.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.3
Score range: 136–289
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 268.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.8Season APEX416.6

46.2Auto50.1

114.5Teleop110.6

27.7Endgame63.9

41Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	33
teleop	120	68
endgame	64	55
foul	0	0
total	195	156

Result

Final score

195 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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