Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.02 – 269.95

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.7 ±9.8

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 29.57Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 42.33Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 35.12Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.4 ±9.8

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 143.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 89.24Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 37.62Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8430, 1747, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8430, 1747, 9119

Auto

35.5 37%

Teleop

16.1 17%

Endgame

43.9 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 45, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

270 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1024, 45, 7617

Auto

46.4 18%

Teleop

159.7 61%

Endgame

56.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score107pts

Blue projected score270pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.9
Score range: 59–318
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 269.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.7Season APEX426.4

35.5Auto46.4

16.1Teleop159.7

43.9Endgame56.3

112Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	58
teleop	69	252
endgame	62	41
foul	0	0
total	159	351

Result

Final score

159 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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