Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

265.97 – 363.6

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.5 ±10.4

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 39.88Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 111.38Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 114.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±9.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 67.9Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 127.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 168.66Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1646, 6498, 829

/ 100 compat

Projected

266 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1646, 6498, 829

Auto

38.6 15%

Teleop

185.3 70%

Endgame

41.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 8116, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 447, 8116, 3940

Auto

52.5 14%

Teleop

176.2 48%

Endgame

137.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266pts

Blue projected score363.6pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.6
Score range: 218–412
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.5Season APEX346.3

38.6Auto52.5

185.3Teleop176.2

41.8Endgame137.1

103Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	36
teleop	135	190
endgame	82	142
foul	5	5
total	283	373

Result

Final score

283 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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