Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.47 – 326.87

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343 ±9.8

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 73.53Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 134.7Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX -4.76Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.4 ±9.8

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 212.08Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 31.14Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 83.65Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7657, 3494, 2867

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7657, 3494, 2867

Auto

69.4 34%

Teleop

101.2 50%

Endgame

33.3 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4272, 6956, 4580

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4272, 6956, 4580

Auto

37.4 12%

Teleop

183.0 57%

Endgame

99.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score203.5pts

Blue projected score326.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.4
Score range: 154–376
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 270.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343Season APEX384.4

69.4Auto37.4

101.2Teleop183

33.3Endgame99.4

142Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	51
teleop	42	120
endgame	12	84
foul	5	5
total	85	260

Result

Final score

85 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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