Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.74 – 227.87

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605 ±8.7

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 69.43Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 116.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 119.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.4 ±9.8

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 80.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 100.14Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 46.87Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 761, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 761, 1024

Auto

34.3 11%

Teleop

199.1 65%

Endgame

72.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4982, 5484, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4982, 5484, 9119

Auto

23.4 11%

Teleop

143.1 66%

Endgame

50.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304.7pts

Blue projected score227.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.9
Score range: 180–353
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 269.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605Season APEX239.4

34.3Auto23.4

199.1Teleop143.1

72.4Endgame50

157Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	25
teleop	231	130
endgame	99	69
foul	5	0
total	406	224

Result

Final score

406 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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