Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.98 – 262.63

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 107.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±9.3

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 58.95Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 131.41Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 34.62Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.7 ±9.8

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 26.13Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 172.71Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 63.79Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 8116, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

225 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 135, 8116, 10434

Auto

46.5 20%

Teleop

105.4 46%

Endgame

79.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7617, 10021, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7617, 10021, 1747

Auto

37.0 14%

Teleop

108.3 42%

Endgame

114.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score225pts

Blue projected score262.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: 176–312
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 273.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.9Season APEX463.7

46.5Auto37

105.4Teleop108.3

79.4Endgame114.2

183Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	74
teleop	29	66
endgame	13	21
foul	0	45
total	67	206

Result

Final score

67 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 107.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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