Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

437.07 – 301.52

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.3 ±9.3

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 74.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 124.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 238.52Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.3 ±9.3

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 101.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 99.8Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 100.32Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3176, 1501, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3176, 1501, 4272

Auto

88.0 21%

Teleop

236.9 55%

Endgame

104.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4926, 234, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4926, 234, 868

Auto

76.7 26%

Teleop

132.6 45%

Endgame

87.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score437.1pts

Blue projected score301.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.6
Score range: 254–485
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 268.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.3Season APEX475.3

88Auto76.7

236.9Teleop132.6

104Endgame87.9

70Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	49
teleop	184	230
endgame	150	56
foul	5	0
total	366	335

Result

Final score

366 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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