Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.93 – 284

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.2 ±9.3

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 105.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 31.12Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 145.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.1 ±9.4

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 88.67Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 68.56Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 126.77Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 8430, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5010, 8430, 3940

Auto

61.0 22%

Teleop

148.9 53%

Endgame

71.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6498, 447, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

284 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6498, 447, 7457

Auto

72.9 27%

Teleop

126.2 47%

Endgame

71.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.9pts

Blue projected score284pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 233–333
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 271.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.2Season APEX473.1

61Auto72.9

148.9Teleop126.2

71Endgame71.9

143Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	92
teleop	106	87
endgame	61	41
foul	0	20
total	194	240

Result

Final score

194 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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