Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
233.55 – 140.46
76%24%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
184 – 262
Prediction missed · off by 85.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 114.95Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 110.68Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 7.92Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 36.13Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 86.8Event APEX -22.43Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 126.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 45, 4580, 1646
52
/ 100 compatProjected
233.6 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 45, 4580, 1646
Auto
5.9 2%
Teleop
138.1 58%
Endgame
93.5 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1741, 2867, 461
44
/ 100 compatProjected
140.5 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1741, 2867, 461
Auto
23.6 17%
Teleop
57.3 41%
Endgame
60.1 43%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score233.6pts
Blue projected score140.5pts
Red win probability76%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 93.1
- Score range
- 91–283
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
351.4Season APEX402.3
5.9Auto23.6
138.1Teleop57.3
93.5Endgame60.1
80Consistency147
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 55 |
| teleop | 103 | 145 |
| endgame | 58 | 62 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 184 | 262 |
Result
Final score
184 – 262
Prediction missed · off by 85.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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