Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.2 – 332.97

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±9.8

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 68.41Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 54.08Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 15.71Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.8 ±9.3

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 181.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 23.19Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 128.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 7617, 6956

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 135, 7617, 6956

Auto

14.5 11%

Teleop

96.7 70%

Endgame

26.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10021, 9431, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

333 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10021, 9431, 761

Auto

36.4 11%

Teleop

188.9 56%

Endgame

109.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score138.2pts

Blue projected score333pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.8
Score range: 89–382
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 273.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.1Season APEX579.8

14.5Auto36.4

96.7Teleop188.9

26Endgame109.7

187Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	41
teleop	41	154
endgame	11	97
foul	0	20
total	88	312

Result

Final score

88 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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