Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.24 – 303.55

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

238 – 281

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±9.3

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 145.33Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 106.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 54.26Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.2 ±9.8

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -10.53Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 79.54Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 234.54Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8116, 234, 5402

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8116, 234, 5402

Auto

51.5 17%

Teleop

147.8 48%

Endgame

105.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 7657, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9491, 7657, 4272

Auto

58.1 19%

Teleop

170.0 56%

Endgame

77.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score303.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.7
Score range: 255–355
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 273.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.4Season APEX349.2

51.5Auto58.1

147.8Teleop170

105.5Endgame77.2

151Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	75
teleop	143	106
endgame	64	95
foul	5	5
total	238	281

Result

Final score

238 – 281

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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