Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.92 – 215.96

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

290 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 182.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±9.8

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -1.82Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 63.32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 99.42Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.4 ±9.3

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 9.55Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 88.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 117.48Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8430, 6721, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8430, 6721, 6498

Auto

32.4 23%

Teleop

98.4 70%

Endgame

10.4 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9119, 1501, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9119, 1501, 1720

Auto

-4.4 0%

Teleop

149.7 72%

Endgame

61.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score216pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: 112–265
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 741 vs event baseline 269.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272Season APEX505.4

32.4Auto-4.4

98.4Teleop149.7

10.4Endgame61.3

213Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	103
teleop	145	230
endgame	78	108
foul	10	10
total	290	451

Result

Final score

290 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 182.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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