Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.33 – 266.51

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.7 ±9.3

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 106.49Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 35.46Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 139.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±8.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 104.75Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 100.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 61.01Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 1646, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 868, 1646, 3494

Auto

58.5 21%

Teleop

168.8 62%

Endgame

45.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3176, 5010, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3176, 5010, 7457

Auto

39.6 15%

Teleop

184.3 69%

Endgame

44.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.3pts

Blue projected score266.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.8
Score range: 218–330
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 275.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.7Season APEX626.4

58.5Auto39.6

168.8Teleop184.3

45.9Endgame44.9

120Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	78
teleop	80	107
endgame	77	35
foul	0	5
total	232	225

Result

Final score

232 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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