Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.83 – 318.64

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 76.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.3 ±9.8

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 133.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 20.58Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 80.74Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.5 ±10.4

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 111.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 138.94Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 68.29Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4926, 2867, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4926, 2867, 5484

Auto

67.7 30%

Teleop

89.2 40%

Endgame

65.9 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 45, 3940, 829

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 45, 3940, 829

Auto

47.5 15%

Teleop

190.3 59%

Endgame

85.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.8pts

Blue projected score318.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.8
Score range: 186–368
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 274.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.3Season APEX369.5

67.7Auto47.5

89.2Teleop190.3

65.9Endgame85.3

120Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	61
teleop	86	236
endgame	31	104
foul	0	5
total	170	406

Result

Final score

170 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 76.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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