Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.35 – 73.2

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 133.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.9 ±9.8

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 116.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 42.87Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 154.57Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±10.4

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 32.94Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX -15.18Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 55.44Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 9491, 4580

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 234, 9491, 4580

Auto

38.3 13%

Teleop

168.0 55%

Endgame

99.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6956, 9119, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6956, 9119, 6498

Auto

19.3 25%

Teleop

48.9 63%

Endgame

9.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score314.4pts

Blue projected score73.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.2
Score range: 23–364
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 279.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.9Season APEX239.3

38.3Auto19.3

168Teleop48.9

99.7Endgame9.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	30
teleop	80	105
endgame	62	23
foul	0	30
total	163	188

Result

Final score

163 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 133.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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