Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.81 – 150.54

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 86.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±9.3

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 55.56Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 28.73Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 59.52Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256 ±9.8

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 13.34Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 71.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 65.49Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7657, 1741, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7657, 1741, 1501

Auto

-2.4 0%

Teleop

100.0 70%

Endgame

44.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 5402, 9431

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8430, 5402, 9431

Auto

21.8 15%

Teleop

103.7 70%

Endgame

22.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score143.8pts

Blue projected score150.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.7
Score range: 93–202
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 285.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.8Season APEX256

-2.4Auto21.8

100Teleop103.7

44.5Endgame22

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	152	62
endgame	84	20
foul	0	0
total	263	97

Result

Final score

263 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 86.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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