Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

384.68 – 363.38

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 121.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.8 ±9.8

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 131.85Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 177.01Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 75.82Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.3 ±9.3

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 100.52Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 133.08Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 129.78Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 461, 1024, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 461, 1024, 6721

Auto

52.4 14%

Teleop

226.5 59%

Endgame

102.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7617, 5010, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7617, 5010, 1720

Auto

38.8 11%

Teleop

212.1 60%

Endgame

99.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score384.7pts

Blue projected score363.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.3
Score range: 311–437
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 287.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.8Season APEX522.3

52.4Auto38.8

226.5Teleop212.1

102.6Endgame99.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	16
teleop	144	172
endgame	51	42
foul	15	0
total	275	230

Result

Final score

275 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 121.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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