Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

333.1 – 277.1

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 116.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.2 ±9.3

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 137.08Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 61.25Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 134.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.2 ±10.4

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 105.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 85.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 86.68Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 829, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4272, 829, 761

Auto

41.2 13%

Teleop

218.9 68%

Endgame

63.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3940, 4926, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3940, 4926, 1747

Auto

61.1 22%

Teleop

139.3 51%

Endgame

74.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score333.1pts

Blue projected score277.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56
Score range: 227–383
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 843 vs event baseline 278.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.2Season APEX348.2

41.2Auto61.1

218.9Teleop139.3

63.7Endgame74.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	86
teleop	275	147
endgame	110	139
foul	0	0
total	471	372

Result

Final score

471 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 116.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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