Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.65 – 256.03

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 339

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.9 ±9.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 59.15Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 61.84Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 136.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.8 ±9.3

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 3.39Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 102.93Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 149.71Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 447, 10434, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 447, 10434, 3494

Auto

34.2 14%

Teleop

128.0 51%

Endgame

88.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2867, 8116, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

256 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2867, 8116, 10021

Auto

35.7 14%

Teleop

136.5 53%

Endgame

86.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score257.7pts

Blue projected score256pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.6
Score range: 206–308
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 278.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.9Season APEX468.8

34.2Auto35.7

128Teleop136.5

88Endgame86.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	80
teleop	121	131
endgame	60	128
foul	0	0
total	240	339

Result

Final score

240 – 339

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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