Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.24 – 227.03

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611 ±8.8

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 102.56Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 135.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 87.25Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.2 ±9.3

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 85.71Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 44.62Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 96.7Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 4982, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 868, 4982, 7457

Auto

49.0 15%

Teleop

177.3 55%

Endgame

96.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 135, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

227 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1646, 135, 5484

Auto

14.2 7%

Teleop

128.2 61%

Endgame

67.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.2pts

Blue projected score227pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.2
Score range: 176–376
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 284.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611Season APEX305.2

49Auto14.2

177.3Teleop128.2

96.8Endgame67.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	26
teleop	161	84
endgame	43	17
foul	0	0
total	268	127

Result

Final score

268 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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