Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.71 – 206.06

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 422

Prediction correct · off by 127.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.4 ±9.8

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 9.66Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 89.36Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.69Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±9.8

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 58.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 68.71Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 78.93Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6956, 45, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6956, 45, 8430

Auto

20.4 17%

Teleop

59.2 50%

Endgame

39.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 4580, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1720, 4580, 3176

Auto

20.9 10%

Teleop

122.1 59%

Endgame

62.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score125.7pts

Blue projected score206.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.4
Score range: 75–257
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 283.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.4Season APEX431.8

20.4Auto20.9

59.2Teleop122.1

39.3Endgame62.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	54
teleop	94	269
endgame	46	89
foul	0	10
total	164	422

Result

Final score

164 – 422

Prediction correct · off by 127.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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