Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.51 – 249.87

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 107.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±10.4

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 68.76Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 39.93Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 45.82Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.3 ±9.8

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 115.37Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 87.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 47.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9431, 1747, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9431, 1747, 6498

Auto

10.0 6%

Teleop

81.1 52%

Endgame

64.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 461, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5010, 461, 4926

Auto

38.2 16%

Teleop

143.3 61%

Endgame

53.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score249.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.4
Score range: 104–301
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 281.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.4Season APEX483.3

10Auto38.2

81.1Teleop143.3

64.4Endgame53.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	97
teleop	117	208
endgame	66	97
foul	0	0
total	217	402

Result

Final score

217 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 107.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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