Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.98 – 217.96

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 150.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 646.6 ±8.7

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX -21.82Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 78.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 86.51Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±10.4

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 71.71Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 93.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 52.64Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 3494, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1501, 3494, 1024

Auto

36.3 26%

Teleop

80.7 58%

Endgame

22.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10434, 3940, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10434, 3940, 9491

Auto

30.7 14%

Teleop

132.3 60%

Endgame

55.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score143pts

Blue projected score218pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75
Score range: 93–268
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 662 vs event baseline 276.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

646.6Season APEX255.6

36.3Auto30.7

80.7Teleop132.3

22.1Endgame55.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	54
teleop	269	122
endgame	89	66
foul	5	0
total	420	242

Result

Final score

420 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 150.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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