Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.4 – 277.63

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±8.8

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 66.21Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 159.29Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 90.9Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.5 ±8.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 28.47Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 146.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 102.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4580, 7457, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4580, 7457, 8116

Auto

72.3 23%

Teleop

158.7 51%

Endgame

79.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 1024, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 135, 1024, 234

Auto

62.5 21%

Teleop

167.2 57%

Endgame

62.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score316.4pts

Blue projected score277.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.8
Score range: 228–366
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 280.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.6Season APEX433.5

72.3Auto62.5

158.7Teleop167.2

79.9Endgame62.3

120Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	60
teleop	172	183
endgame	129	86
foul	0	0
total	336	329

Result

Final score

336 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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