Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.24 – 363.85

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

324 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.8 ±8.1

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 37.58Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 161.8Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 183.86Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.6 ±9.3

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 57.78Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 156.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 149.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 7457, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 7457, 4272

Auto

97.6 26%

Teleop

189.3 51%

Endgame

86.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7617, 10021, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7617, 10021, 1024

Auto

75.2 21%

Teleop

191.4 54%

Endgame

84.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.2pts

Blue projected score363.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.4
Score range: 314–433
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 279.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.8Season APEX603.6

97.6Auto75.2

189.3Teleop191.4

86.7Endgame84.8

94Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	56
teleop	188	132
endgame	49	129
foul	0	20
total	324	337

Result

Final score

324 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 43 pts

Match videos

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