Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

374.33 – 363.93

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

444 – 368

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.8 ±8.1

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 34.71Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 158.9Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 180.72Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.6 ±9.3

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 57.98Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 155.89Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 150.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 7457, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 7457, 4272

Auto

94.0 26%

Teleop

185.3 51%

Endgame

84.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7617, 10021, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7617, 10021, 1024

Auto

75.4 21%

Teleop

195.2 56%

Endgame

80.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score374.3pts

Blue projected score363.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.4
Score range: 314–424
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 812 vs event baseline 277.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.8Season APEX603.6

94Auto75.4

185.3Teleop195.2

84.1Endgame80.7

98Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	75
teleop	215	159
endgame	107	124
foul	0	10
total	444	368

Result

Final score

444 – 368

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Match videos

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