ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

239.75 – 353.08

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

297 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±12.9

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 65.22Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 106.13Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 68.4Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±16.4

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 45.69Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 162.98Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 144.41Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 11173, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 167, 11173, 171

Auto

45.8 20%

Teleop

125.4 55%

Endgame

55.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5125, 2194, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5125, 2194, 5934

Auto

47.6 14%

Teleop

227.4 66%

Endgame

69.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score239.8pts

Blue projected score353.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.3
Score range: 199–394
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 225.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.9Season APEX411.5

45.8Auto47.6

125.4Teleop227.4

55.9Endgame69.9

5Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	65
teleop	179	234
endgame	22	53
foul	45	0
total	297	352

Result

Final score

297 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Match videos

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