ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.34 – 173.68

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619 ±12.4

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 36.29Rank 18Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 61.08Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 121.97Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±41.2

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 65.74Rank 12Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.23Rank 23Record 1-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 106.71Rank 11Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 648, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 648, 4096, 2338

Auto

58.9 27%

Teleop

97.4 44%

Endgame

63.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1625, 9988, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1625, 9988, 2290

Auto

30.5 18%

Teleop

72.1 43%

Endgame

66.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score219.3pts

Blue projected score173.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.7
Score range: 134–259
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 221.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619Season APEX299.5

58.9Auto30.5

97.4Teleop72.1

63.8Endgame66.3

79Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	26
teleop	113	61
endgame	84	28
foul	15	0
total	300	115

Result

Final score

300 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Match videos

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