ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.4 – 119.74

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±12.8

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 52.56Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 57.9Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 43.94Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.9 ±15.6

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 6.85Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 13.17Rank 24Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 99.72Rank 10Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 4655, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2358, 4655, 5442

Auto

16.6 11%

Teleop

90.2 60%

Endgame

42.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2151, 2704, 112

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2151, 2704, 112

Auto

20.9 17%

Teleop

59.6 49%

Endgame

41.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score119.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.7
Score range: 79–195
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 226.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.1Season APEX286.9

16.6Auto20.9

90.2Teleop59.6

42.8Endgame41.3

119Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	84	49
endgame	21	14
foul	0	0
total	122	86

Result

Final score

122 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Match videos

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