ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.38 – 127.62

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 87 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±16.4

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 139.64Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 82

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 164.91Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 34.83Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±41.2

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 57.24Rank 12Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -15.34Rank 23Record 1-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 85.72Rank 11Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5934, 2194, 5125

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.4 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5934, 2194, 5125

Auto

28.1 9%

Teleop

213.2 65%

Endgame

85.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1625, 9988, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1625, 9988, 2290

Auto

14.1 12%

Teleop

66.4 55%

Endgame

40.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score339.4pts

Blue projected score127.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 211.8
Score range: 88–379
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 641 vs event baseline 222.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.5Season APEX299.5

28.1Auto14.1

213.2Teleop66.4

85.7Endgame40

21Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	62
teleop	254	84
endgame	57	95
foul	0	0
total	400	241

Result

Final score

400 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 87 pts

Match videos

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