ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.59 – 169.25

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 395

Prediction missed · off by 170.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619 ±12.4

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 29.3Rank 18Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 54.45Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 107.84Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±12.9

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 41.65Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 79.69Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 47.91Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 648, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 648, 4096, 2338

Auto

54.7 29%

Teleop

102.4 54%

Endgame

33.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 167, 11173, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 167, 11173, 171

Auto

43.8 26%

Teleop

73.0 43%

Endgame

51.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score191.6pts

Blue projected score169.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 130–231
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 217.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619Season APEX485.9

54.7Auto43.8

102.4Teleop73

33.2Endgame51.2

77Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	66
teleop	118	215
endgame	115	84
foul	0	30
total	307	395

Result

Final score

307 – 395

Prediction missed · off by 170.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.