ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.86 – 137.16

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±12.8

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 44.57Rank 15Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 130.19Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 188.1Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±12.8

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 54.93Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 51.5Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 30.73Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11195, 111, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11195, 111, 10435

Auto

59.5 17%

Teleop

233.4 66%

Endgame

62.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 4655, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2358, 4655, 5442

Auto

35.0 27%

Teleop

77.4 60%

Endgame

17.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score362.9pts

Blue projected score137.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 225.7
Score range: 98–402
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 215.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.4Season APEX459.1

59.5Auto35

233.4Teleop77.4

62.8Endgame17.5

71Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	10
teleop	244	103
endgame	61	76
foul	5	0
total	390	189

Result

Final score

390 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Match videos

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