ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.39 – 293.65

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

355 – 416

Prediction missed · off by 90.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±16.4

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 21.99Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 151.77Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 122.63Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±12.9

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 87.62Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 125.92Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 80.11Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5125, 2194, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5125, 2194, 5934

Auto

46.0 16%

Teleop

185.6 64%

Endgame

60.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 167, 11173, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 167, 11173, 171

Auto

48.9 18%

Teleop

166.4 61%

Endgame

59.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score296.4pts

Blue projected score293.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.7
Score range: 251–339
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 238.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.5Season APEX485.9

46Auto48.9

185.6Teleop166.4

60.4Endgame59.7

3Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	61
teleop	161	220
endgame	107	90
foul	30	45
total	355	416

Result

Final score

355 – 416

Prediction missed · off by 90.5 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.