ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.78 – 257.22

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±12.9

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 80.36Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 119.08Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 73.34Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619 ±12.4

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 44.01Rank 18Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 76.9Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 136.31Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 11173, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 167, 11173, 171

Auto

48.4 19%

Teleop

154.4 61%

Endgame

50.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 648, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 648, 4096, 2338

Auto

71.7 28%

Teleop

112.4 44%

Endgame

70.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score272.8pts

Blue projected score257.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.6
Score range: 215–315
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 691 vs event baseline 235.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.9Season APEX619

48.4Auto71.7

154.4Teleop112.4

50.6Endgame70.3

15Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	60
teleop	227	166
endgame	102	71
foul	15	0
total	394	297

Result

Final score

394 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Match videos

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