ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.94 – 346.76

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 136.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±12.8

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 53.58Rank 15Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 148.39Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 192.97Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±16.4

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 41.59Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 165.23Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 139.94Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11195, 111, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11195, 111, 10435

Auto

72.6 19%

Teleop

238.2 61%

Endgame

80.1 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5125, 2194, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5125, 2194, 5934

Auto

51.9 15%

Teleop

225.0 66%

Endgame

64.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score394.9pts

Blue projected score346.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.2
Score range: 305–437
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 233.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.4Season APEX411.5

72.6Auto51.9

238.2Teleop225

80.1Endgame64.2

33Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	23
teleop	238	50
endgame	150	56
foul	5	0
total	450	129

Result

Final score

450 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 136.4 pts

Match videos

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