ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.94 – 139.05

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 108.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±12.9

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 67.3Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 108.22Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 76.42Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±12.8

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 46.93Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 55.71Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 36.41Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 11173, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 167, 11173, 171

Auto

46.4 20%

Teleop

137.4 60%

Endgame

46.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 4655, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2358, 4655, 5442

Auto

15.0 11%

Teleop

85.5 63%

Endgame

34.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score251.9pts

Blue projected score139.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.9
Score range: 97–294
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 231.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.9Season APEX459.1

46.4Auto15

137.4Teleop85.5

46.2Endgame34.5

12Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	35
teleop	204	148
endgame	69	90
foul	10	0
total	335	273

Result

Final score

335 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 108.5 pts

Match videos

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