ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.82 – 72.52

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

557 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 127.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.2 ±13.7

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 130.1Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 82

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 69.67Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 122.05Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.4 ±12.8

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 66.46Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -19.89Rank 25Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 25.95Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5934, 2194, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.8 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5934, 2194, 10435

Auto

46.8 15%

Teleop

184.8 59%

Endgame

79.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 10029, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.5 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4655, 10029, 5442

Auto

14.5 20%

Teleop

23.7 33%

Endgame

34.1 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score321.8pts

Blue projected score72.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 249.3
Score range: 39–356
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 191.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.2Season APEX381.4

46.8Auto14.5

184.8Teleop23.7

79.6Endgame34.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	4
teleop	393	81
endgame	123	8
foul	15	0
total	557	93

Result

Final score

557 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 127.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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