ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.66 – 18.4

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 132 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±15.6

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 91.71Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 48Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 25.95Rank 11Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.2 ±15.1

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 4.35Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 15.93Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX -1.88Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 111, 2151, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 111, 2151, 2290

Auto

21.4 13%

Teleop

97.0 59%

Endgame

46.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5125, 4096, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.4 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5125, 4096, 167

Auto

-2.9 0%

Teleop

22.3 100%

Endgame

-1.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score165.7pts

Blue projected score18.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.3
Score range: -14–198
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 180.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.5Season APEX577.2

21.4Auto-2.9

97Teleop22.3

46.4Endgame-1.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	63
teleop	165	84
endgame	57	36
foul	0	0
total	265	183

Result

Final score

265 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 132 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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