ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.43 – 456.46

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.9 ±16

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 42.24Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 112.6Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 4.59Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 738.2 ±9.8

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 138.03Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 155.51Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 162.92Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5442, 8880, 2151

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5442, 8880, 2151

Auto

3.8 2%

Teleop

106.6 67%

Endgame

48.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2338, 2194, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.5 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2338, 2194, 111

Auto

82.8 18%

Teleop

272.9 60%

Endgame

96.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score159.4pts

Blue projected score456.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -297
Score range: 114–501
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 251.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.9Season APEX738.2

3.8Auto82.8

106.6Teleop272.9

48.5Endgame96.8

143Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	66
teleop	81	202
endgame	77	53
foul	0	0
total	168	321

Result

Final score

168 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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