ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.46 – 103.69

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.7 ±12.2

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 65.9Rank 15Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 80.01Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 93.55Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.6 ±15.1

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 27.11Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 69.14Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 7.44Rank 24Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11195, 171, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.5 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11195, 171, 167

Auto

63.7 27%

Teleop

109.8 47%

Endgame

60.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5125, 4655, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5125, 4655, 2704

Auto

43.2 45%

Teleop

38.4 40%

Endgame

13.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score239.5pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.8
Score range: 59–284
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 251.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.7Season APEX465.6

63.7Auto43.2

109.8Teleop38.4

60.4Endgame13.9

3Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	32
teleop	28	44
endgame	16	15
foul	0	0
total	63	91

Result

Final score

63 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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