ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.61 – 172.42

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±42

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.95Rank 23Record 1-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 75.08Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 186.48Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.3 ±16.2

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 37.29Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 60.47Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 74.66Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9988, 2358, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.6 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 2358, 5934

Auto

34.2 14%

Teleop

125.1 50%

Endgame

89.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2151, 171, 11173

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2151, 171, 11173

Auto

30.6 19%

Teleop

72.8 45%

Endgame

59.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score259.6pts

Blue projected score172.4pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.2
Score range: 133–299
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 215.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX271.3

34.2Auto30.6

125.1Teleop72.8

89.7Endgame59.2

56Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	36
teleop	78	78
endgame	38	30
foul	0	0
total	125	144

Result

Final score

125 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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