ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.93 – 317.95

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±13.3

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 34.61Rank 24Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 37.52Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 45.8Rank 15Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 674.1 ±9.8

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 143.16Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 105.7Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 69.09Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2704, 5442, 11195

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.9 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2704, 5442, 11195

Auto

23.5 21%

Teleop

53.8 48%

Endgame

34.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2194, 461, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

318 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2194, 461, 4096

Auto

45.0 14%

Teleop

244.2 77%

Endgame

28.8 9%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score117.9pts

Blue projected score318pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -200
Score range: 79–357
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 218.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.4Season APEX674.1

23.5Auto45

53.8Teleop244.2

34.8Endgame28.8

103Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	58
teleop	38	168
endgame	7	43
foul	15	0
total	90	269

Result

Final score

90 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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